Friday, February 22, 2008

Gambling on democracy

A little while ago I wrote to Ladbrokes enquiring on the odds on various results at the general election. I thought I'd share their reply with you.

"With regards to your enquiry on a price for various bets on the Political market , our compilers are offering the following odds;

"Caroline Lucas to be elected MP for Brighton Pavillion at the next General election
4/1 Max stake £200

"Darren Johnson to be elected MP for Lewisham and Deptford at the next General election
25/1 Max stake £200

"George Galloway to be elected MP for Poplar at the next General election
6/1 Max stake £200

"Tony Benn to become an MP at or before the next General election
33/1 Max stake £100

"Green Party to win at least one seat at the next General election
7/2 Max stake £200

"The bets must be placed by 28th February , and our ref number is 1547"

Happy gambling people.


Peter said...

The odds on Caroline are a little too short for my liking. I'd prefer around 6 or 7-1 to consider it good value. The rate of increase in the Green vote in Brighton does not suggest an easy victory.

The only one I would see as being good value is the galloway one. Given his previous form, he must have more than a 14% chance of winning - even with the various fractures in his party.

Jim Jay said...

Peter. Like you I'm a fan of making a good return on my bets - although I think what Caroline's odds show is that it is possible.

As to Galloway - six to one isn't bad but I don't share your optimism that it will be such an easy ride.

- His party is fratured and he has less activists.
- The momentum for his campaign at the last election was phenomenal, it wont be this time.
- His profile is lower now than it was then.
- The war is far less of an issue now than it was.
- Poplar is not as strong an area as Tower H was for Respect (R).

I'm sure he can make second or third, but first place seems too difficult - particularly when most resources will be going into TH.

Good luck to him though, obviously.