tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post1862485381095669216..comments2023-08-16T12:07:22.995+00:00Comments on The Daily (Maybe): Gambling on democracyJim Jeppshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17410387006098326671noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-76285451518464696902008-02-23T15:40:00.000+00:002008-02-23T15:40:00.000+00:00Peter. Like you I'm a fan of making a good return ...Peter. Like you I'm a fan of making a good return on my bets - although I think what Caroline's odds show is that it is possible.<BR/><BR/>As to Galloway - six to one isn't bad but I don't share your optimism that it will be such an easy ride.<BR/><BR/>- His party is fratured and he has less activists.<BR/>- The momentum for his campaign at the last election was phenomenal, it wont be this time.<BR/>- His profile is lower now than it was then.<BR/>- The war is far less of an issue now than it was. <BR/>- Poplar is not as strong an area as Tower H was for Respect (R).<BR/><BR/>I'm sure he can make second or third, but first place seems too difficult - particularly when most resources will be going into TH.<BR/><BR/>Good luck to him though, obviously.Jim Jeppshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17410387006098326671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-91810613536628570892008-02-23T14:38:00.000+00:002008-02-23T14:38:00.000+00:00The odds on Caroline are a little too short for my...The odds on Caroline are a little too short for my liking. I'd prefer around 6 or 7-1 to consider it good value. The rate of increase in the Green vote in Brighton does not suggest an easy victory.<BR/><BR/>The only one I would see as being good value is the galloway one. Given his previous form, he must have more than a 14% chance of winning - even with the various fractures in his party.peterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01772849039547798229noreply@blogger.com