Monday, June 08, 2009

How did my predictions bear up?

Well, I made two sets of predictions for election night beyond the obvious things like Labour is screwed and the Lib Dems are just treading water.

First of all, and this was off line so I'm only telling you because I was wrong, I thought the BNP would be close but get nothing and that the Greens would get four. At the time I thought I was being conservative at some Greens were making crazy predictions of wild gains, it turns out I was too optimistic.

Whilst the Greens increased their vote in every region and went from 6.2% to 8.6% to just wasn't enough where it counted. Whilst we had plenty to spare in London we missed out on an MEP by just 0.3% in the North West, just pipped at the post by Griffin. I knew that was a possibility but frankly I'd rather lose by 30% than by 0.3%.

Secondly I made a prediction in a previous post as to how the six very minor parties would do. I'm pleased to announce that this went although better than I expected.

I predicted;

  1. Christians
  2. English Democrats
  3. SLP
  4. NO2EU
  5. Jury Team
  6. Libertas
This was *almost* exactly right. In fact English Democrats topped this particular league with the Christians second, apart from that I was spot on. Smug I am not but it's a small crumb of comfort on a very difficult day.

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