Oldham and Saddleworth Candidates announced

The vile Phil Woolas (Labour) has long gone, but who will replace him? The candidates have been announced for the Oldham and Saddleworth by-election. I make that one woman and nine men;

Debbie Abrahams (Labour)
Kashif Ali (Conservative)
Peter Allen (Green Party)
Derek Adams (British National Party)
Paul Nuttall (UK Independence Party)
Elwyn Watkins (Liberal Democrats)
David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis Party)
The Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony Party)
Loz Kaye (Pirate Party of the United Kingdom)
Stephen Morris (English Democrats)

The by-election will take place on the 13th of Jan 2011.

According to wikipedia the May results were as follows;

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Phil Woolas	14,186	31.9	−10.7
	Liberal Democrat	Elwyn Watkins	14,083	31.6	−0.5
	Conservative	Kashif Ali	11,773	26.4	+8.7
	BNP	Alwyn Stott	2,546	5.7	+0.8
	UKIP	David Bentley	1,720	3.9	+1.8
	Christian	Gulzar Nazir	212	0.5	N/A

Which means only the Tories and Lib Dems are standing the candidates they stood in May. A Lib Dem win seems unlikely given the current circumstances so I guess that makes it a straight Tory - Labour fight for the seat.

Any predictions for placing the parties? Anyone want to predict that the Lib Dems come lower than third place - and if so who would beat them?