Friday, January 29, 2010

Politics at the bookies update

I've just been browsing the odds at William Hill for the individual seats at the general election and noticed a few interesting ones. Sadly not every seat is listed but there's a fair amount there. Click the pics to enlarge.

First, and most important, we see the odds on who will win the next election. Looks like the Tories are the bookies favorite still, no surprise there, but I was disconcerted to see that a Labour victory is at the same odds of Sarah Palin becoming the next US President. She isn't even running is she? Oh my.

We see that whilst George Galloway is well ahead of the Lib Dems he's trailing well behind the neck and neck race between Labour and Tories. If you think he might win there's good money to be made there although personally I suspect he'll either be third or fourth.

Salma Yaqoob is likewise at 12 to 1 with the Lib Dems favorite to win the seat. I think they've underestimated her there, so again a nice bundle to be made if she surprises Mr Hill.
Will Respect hold their currently held seat in Bethnal Green? The bookmakers don't seem to think so, although they haven't written off Respect by any stretch of the imagination. I don't know much about Abjol Miah, the Respect candidate, but I think the fact that William Hill put Labour on for the win is a reasonable reflection of the fact that Tower Hamlets Respect has had a difficult few years losing councillors to all the others parties. However Labour would be foolish to take a victory here for granted.Norwich South has the Greens at 8 to 1 which is bonkers. I suspect the high odds are due to the fact that our last general election result was pretty low coming as it did at the very start of the Norwich Party's extra-ordinary rise. Word to the wise, I'd take a tipple on this one for sure. At those odds you'd be mad not to.

By contrast the more highly publicised campaign for Caroline Lucas sees the Green Party as the favorites to take the seat in May with Labour trailing at third. This looks like a fair summary, although sadly it means there's little money to be made from a Green victory here.
Moving on to Wales the most interesting odds were on Dai Davies the left independent MP who is still on for the win and to keep his seat. Good news as the longer he stays in place the longer it is a reminder to the Labour Party not to try and stitch up its own members.
Another high profile seat is Barking which is the much vaunted BNP target seat. The BNP are all over the place at the moment and their councillors records have been weak enough that the far right will find it very difficult to take the seat. William Hill put them at 4/1 with the odds on Margaret Hodge keeping the seat at a comfortable 1/7.
Last but by no means least we come to Lewisham. Sadly William Hill aren't offering odds here but Ladbrookes are. The Greens are behind Labour at 12/1 but well ahead of the Lib Dems (33/1) and the Tories (100/1) - the same odds as Tony Blair becoming the next Labour leader.

Anyway, it's votes that count not the bookies' betting books, but it's interesting none the less.

1 comment:

michael greenwell said...

the final outcome of capitalist democracy... betting on who gets to f£ck us.