Sunday, June 28, 2009

Odds in the Norwich North by election

Just seen the full Ladbrokes odds for Norwich North by election, very encouraging. At the moment they are as follows;

Conservatives 1/5
Labour 9/2
Greens 12/1
Ian Gibson 14/1
Craig Murray 33/1
Liberal Democrats 33/1
UKIP 100/1
BNP 200/1
Bill Holden 200/1
Libertarian Party 500/1

Generally this looks pretty fair although when I saw they had Craig Murray at the same odds as the Lib Dems I thought something was pretty weird. The answer is that he was 100/1 and then lots of people started betting on him so they shortened his odds, just in case.

So coming sixth on the list looks a lot more humiliating for the Lib Dems than it actually is. They're really only fifth.

....................n.b some more constituencies are listed here.
....................Brighton Pavilion Greens are at 2/1 (third)
....................Norwich South 8/1 (fourth)

11 comments:

Strategist said...

Jim
Whaddya got on the newly selected Labour candidate, Chris Ostrowski?

Robot or human? Right or left? More or less likely that Ian Gibson will run as an independent candidate?

Strategist said...

...9/2 odds on Labour lengthening or shortening?

Jim Jay said...

Labour's odds changed when Ian Gibson announced that he may stand (he said he'd see who they selected first) so I'm not sure that the candidate's status as an international man of mystery (ie no one has ever heard of him) has had an impact yet.

Essentially they're screwed.

Chris Ostrowski Fact file:

- Works for John Lewis (as what? consultant on MPs expenses perhaps :) )

- UEA graduate and "has been active in the Norwich Labour party in the past" which probably means he doesn't live in Norwich.

- He beat two local activists Victoria MacDonald, the local party secretary and Michelle Savage, a local member, member of Labour's National Policy Forum and vice-chairman of the East of England regional board.

- 50 people atended the selection (same as the Greens!)

- age, unknown
- views, unknown
- where he lives, unknown

Strategist said...

"Works for John Lewis (as what?consultant on MPs expenses perhaps :) )"

From the pic, (http://www.labourlist.org/chris_ostrowski_is_the_labour_candidate_for_norwich_north ) he does indeed look like the kind of nice young man who might take you through your plasma screen home cinema options off the old John Lewis list!

A lot now hangs on Ian Gibson's blessing or otherwise of this decision, and hence whether he will be putting himself forward. (Especially for those who have already put money on him at 14-1...)

By gosh this by-election is shaping up to be a belter.

Jim Jay said...

Great quote on the young pretender's selection http://tiny.cc/GT08k ;

John Cowan, vice chairman of Norfolk Labour Party, said: “It's very interesting that they've opted for a male candidate, my preference was always going to be for a female candidate.

“Chris is a fairly strong candidate. I worked with him during the Euro election campaign. He's obviously spent some time in Norwich at the UEA but it would've been nice to have someone a bit more local.”

A fairly strong candidate? Ouch.

Jim Jay said...

Date set!

The vote is on the 23rd July

Joe said...

I take it we would have prefered to have the poll later than that? (although I'm sure everyone other than Labour would) Seems like they're getting it out of the way so it can't do to much real damage after the recess.

Good luck to Rupert Reed, fingers crossed for a great upset

Jim Jay said...

He stood for council in the London Borough of Merton, Merton Park ward in 2006.

He was Labour's number seven on the region's Euro list.

Labour's candidate dressed as an elf can be viewed here
http://kerroncross.blogspot.com/2007/12/csm-elves.html

Joe said...

Ah, the good ol' Christian Socialist Movement, which is awash with such radical lefties as Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and Stephen Timms, although this Otrowski fella dosent seem to be its chairman anymore

Strategist said...

"Date set!" - posted 9.23pm

"Labour's candidate dressed as an elf can be viewed here" - posted 10.36pm

73 minutes - not bad! The Daily Maybe's credibility demolition machine is fast, and smoothly oiled!

Green Gordon said...

Ostrowski has the same last name as a school colleague of mine whose mother is/was a Labour MP. Might just be a coincidence, as I read, somewhere, that that Chris may have been a former student Tory.