Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Eastern region figures: nerd attack

Indulging my inner stats nerd may not be getting all those things done that need doing - but it's too hard to control. I've been looking at the breakdown of the results for the Eastern region at the European election. Here's what I've found (pdf);

First of all the Eastern region is made up of six counties of unequal size. Here we see the proportion of the voters in each county.

Beds 10.22%
Cambs 13.08%
Essex 29.83%
Herts 16.87%
Norfolk 15.22%
Suffolk 15.04%

There was not much to choose between them in terms of turn out with 36% in Essex as the lowest turnout and the highest being Suffolk with 39.3%.

Cambridge: Green and pleasant

Cambridge City saw the second highest result in the region for the Greens (18.07%) and the highest for the Lib Dems (26.64%). It was also the 'best' vote in the region for the pro-European Libertas (1.2%).

Alternately the BNP's lowest vote in the entire region came here in Cambridge (2.28%) which also returned the lowest UKIP vote (8.27%).

BNP: strong in Essex, weak where progressives are strong

Of the BNP's top ten boroughs seven were in Essex (Thurrock, Broxborne (Herts) and Basildon being highest). The two outside of Essex were Fenland (in Cambrideshire) and Great Yarmouth, which is a vile hole of a place.

You wont be massively surprised to hear there was some correlation with the UKIP vote (for example five of their top ten areas were the same as the BNP's) although that correlation was not exact. The correlation was far stronger with the English Democrat vote, which might indicate that BNP campaigning didn't make as much of a difference as natural demographics in a particular area.

Interestingly the best areas for UK First (a UKIP breakaway that received 2.38% of the total regional vote) were entirely different and there even seems to be a negative correlation. Weird.

Lib Dems and Tories: no surprises

The highest result for any party in the region was for the Tories in Hertsmere (Herts) with just over 40% of the vote. The county in which they performed worst was Norfolk (which surprised me).

The Lib Dems performed best in Cambridgeshire as a whole and were weakest in Essex, despite strongholds like Colchester and Chelmsford. Having said that the Lib Dems only topped the poll in Cambridge City and Watford which may well not bode well for the general election.

Labour: Bad night in a bad region.

Labour topped the poll in one borough only, Luton, and only achieved over 20% of the vote there and in Stevenage. Other best performing areas were all urban (Cambridge, Harlow, Ipswich, Norwich and Watford) although they didn't win the poll in any of these areas.

Labour only just scrapped over 10% of the vote, although I am pleased that Richard Howitt was re-elected as he is a good sort in my view.

Greens: feisty results, but no panatella

The Greens did not get an MEP but did improve their results all over the region. Taken county by county the results look like this;

Norfolk 11.17%
Suffolk 10.49%
Cambs 9.47%
Herts 8.29%
Essex 7.24%
Beds 6.91%

The total result was 8.8% (1% short of denying UKIP their second MEP).

The top five polling districts (in order) were Norwich City, Cambridge City, Mid Suffolk, South Norfolk and St Albans. The worst areas were the strongest for the BNP; Thurrock, Castle Point and Fenland.

Lefty groups: only wee but still interesting

The Socialist Labour Party's (SLP) strongest areas were identical to the areas with the highest Labour and Green votes.

NO2EU's best votes came from entirely different areas, six of their best ten areas were identical to the BNP's top areas indicating that there was little cross over between those who wanted to make a non-fascist anti-EU vote and those who wanted a socialist or nothing.

Incidentally this is also an indicator that No2EU probably did not cost the Greens the North West seat (which I never thought it did, but some people have been saying this). If I get the North West results I'll check that out.

Let's keep the left's vote in perspective though, NO2EU's best vote was in Castle Point (Essex) at 1.67% and the best vote for the SLP highest poll was a piddly 1.59% (Ipswich) well below the worst results for the main parties or the Greens.

The rest: can I be bothered?

When you get to a very small sample the numbers stop being statistically interesting I think. Points of note are that Animals First didn't come anywhere near 'costing' the Greens a seat, and most of their vote came from Essex.

The Christians polled best in Bedfordshire and worst in Norfolk (where they mainly worship the sun and moon).

The prize for the worst result in the entire region goes to the Jury Team who managed to poll 0.21% in the North Norfolk district. Even the independent didn't manage to get that bad a result in any district. My advice? Better steer clear of North Norfolk you Jury boys - it seems you just aren't welcome.


Jon said...

Broxbourne is in Herts (albeit brodering Essex). But an interesting roundup.

Jon said...

Broxbourne is in Herts (albeit bordering Essex). But an interesting roundup.

Jim Jay said...

Thanks! Corrected the post.

Douglas Coker said...

While geography is the theme ... Broxbourne is on the other side of the M25, just north of Enfield.

The Greens went from 6.something% to best part of 9% in Enfield.

Euro Election results in Enfield Borough.
Con 20345 31.09%

Lab 15385 23.51%

UKIP 7916 12.10%

Green 5876 8.98%

Lib Dem 5398 8.25%

BNP 3145 4.81%

There were another 13 parties/candidates who polled between 2281 and 37 votes each.


Douglas Coker