Friday, March 28, 2008

Race for London Mayor is on: predictions?

So the candidates are announced and we're looking at a hard fought contest and a whole bunch of candidates, some of whom will do rather better than others.

Whilst the spurious Damian Hockney had the good sense not to waste any one's time with his failed One London project there are plenty of others hoping that the £10,000 deposit plus £10,000 to get into the election handbook plus however much will be spent on their campaign (the limit is £420,000, high enough for most campaigns not to have to worry about) will reap them political rewards.

The list of ten candidates in order of charm, sense and pugnacity are;

  1. Sian Berry (Green); the only candidate to have been endorsed by a teddy bear.
  2. Ken Livingstone (New Labour); you'll need your rose tinted spectacles on to see much Red in Ken these days, but I've always admired his chutzpah.
  3. Lindsey German (Left List); long serving central committee member of the Socialist Workers Party.
  4. Brian Paddick (Lib Dems); new to the Lib Dems, not quite up to speed yet.
  5. Winston McKenzie (the only Independent); ex-boxer, ex-Veritas. Silly.
  6. Gerard Batten (UKIP); likes drawing large wages whilst doing f-all of use.
  7. Alan Craig (Christian Peoples Alliance); does not like Mosques.
  8. Matt O'Connor (English Democrats); fathers for justice, denies being a far right fuck knuckle.
  9. Boris Johnson (Conservatives); ah, now, well, you see, oh, now, then, when I was at, Eton, was I, or was that you? Oh I don't know - what ho.
  10. Richard Barnbrook (BNP); ballet loving, gay porn star and authentic voice of the white working class.
The long standing peace campaigner Brian Haw, as predicted, is not a candidate. This is not a surprise.

Now, let's play a game. What order will the candidates come in, for first preferences, (don't skip any) and who will win the contest? The trick is to do this now - not five days before the race ends to see how good you are at judging these things. I should emphasise this is not what you *want* to happen, but what you think *will* happen.

My money is on 9, 2, 4, 1, 10, 6, 3, 7, 8, 5 with a win for Ken.


Jack Ray said...

I'd move the UKIP candidate down to 9th, and move the rest up a peg

Jim Jay said...

Below the Christian People's Alliance and the English Democrats? Well they are in disarray so it could happen - and I think the CPA will do better than most expect.

MikeS said...

On the main event, I have a horrible feeling that you're right Jim. It looks like the people of London are stupid enough to elect an upper class twit come Thatcherite as mayor.

weggis said...

I fear Jim, that you have fallen for what you want to happen.

I think Boris will edge it, but it will be close.

Jim Jay said...

Weggis - if it was what I want to happen the list would read 1 to 10 in order.

To clarify I think Boris will get more first pref votes but be beaten on the second prefs. by Livingstone

MikeS said...

Well the polls say Johnson will get more 1st and 2nd prefs than Livingstone, by some margin.

Jim Jay said...

Sad state of affairs it is too Mike. But I believe the ehat of the campaign will bring out those who might not have otherwise voted and swing second prefs to Ken.

That's my current view, but obviously I may be wrong.

weggis said...

Yes Jim I figured that but the subconscious threat that the Green Party will lose their grip on the Mayor’s budget, that they have held for the past 4 years, I fear has had an impact on your observations.

scott redding said...

I love the bear photo.

scott redding said...

This is fun for ages 9 to 99.

Ricky said...

There is more to Alan Craig than his scepticism over the group behind Abbey Mills Mosque. He has been a long standing advocate for social justice issues everything from prisons right though to his local market. Talk to the residence of Newham and read up on him! and his party (Christian Peoples Alliance).

Ricky said...

ps. I think Ken will win the first round but Boris will then win overall because of the second votes.

Peter said...

My order would be the same as yours, but I'd move the BNP up one.