Friday, May 04, 2007

Coalitions

There are two big coalition questions on the table after the election results have finally come in. One admittedly larger than the other - one in Brighton and the other in Scotland.

With the Tories taking over as the largest party with 26 out of 54 seats they are close to an outright majority - but don't quite get there. that means they need the cooperation of other councillors to gain a majority.

There are 13 Labour councillors (not going to happen), 12 Green, two LibDem and one independent (who I know nothing about), who will they choose to approach first to form an administration. God I hope it's not the Greens.

Moving swiftly onto Scotland.

The full results are in and the SNP are the largest gang in town, but with 47 MSPs in a house of 129 they going to have to do some pretty nifty footwork considering that all three of the Westminster Parties are opposed to an independence referendum.

SNP...47
Labour...46
Tories...17
Lib Dems...16
Green...2
Independent...1

So, what are the options? The Tories have ruled out any deal with anyone what so ever, let's leave them aside.

A Labour / Lib Dem pact (which has happened before) would make 62 seats (short of the 65 needed for a majority). So would they consider going in with the three remaining MSPs? Would those MSPs consider going in with them?

It sounds like Labour are absolutely opposed to doing a deal with the SNP, so what of an SNP / Lib Dem / Green coalition - what the hell would that look like? In fact it seems that none of these options are likely to happen. What happens then? A minority administration or a new election I suppose. Hmmmm.

5 comments:

Don Fraser said...

Like you I hope the Green Party in Brighton don't do a deal with the Tories. If they do it will play into the hands of people who say we are a centerist party and could cause a real set back for those of us pushing a for progressive agenda.

Bad news in Scotland, any views on the reasons for the loss of seats other than the protest vote going to the SNP.

Don Fraser

Jim Jay said...

Personally I don't believe they will - they have some good lefty Greens there, as well as some others... but also I don't think it makes electoral sense to do it - the focus is on getting the MP's seat now and going into coalition with another party will confuse issues (fingers crossed that's what people think anyway)

I personally believe the main reason for the vote drop in Scotland was that the SNP took over the election and made it there's so it was hard for minor players to get a look in, having said that if the MSPs had been effective would their vote really have dropped so much?

I don't know.

weggis said...

“Tory” is just a label on a jam jar. It’s a Brand. There is brand aversion as well as brand loyalty. The product can, and does, vary. I would suggest the Brighton Greens [another label on a jam jar] remove the “Tory” lid and look see what’s inside. It’s what we’re asking the Shia, Kurds and Sunni’s to do in Iraq, isn’t it?

I do believe the Scotland parliament is fixed term, so how do we get a new election? Short of all 129 MSPs resigning and forcing 129 by-elections.

Phugebrins said...

It's got a maximum term, but terms can be shortened - if a first minister isn't approved in 28 days' time, new elections are called.

Jim Jay said...

Greens to go into coalition with the SNP?

BBC