tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post4582258036039692613..comments2023-08-16T12:07:22.995+00:00Comments on The Daily (Maybe): The AV safe-o-meterJim Jeppshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17410387006098326671noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-65939088885760940402011-04-13T22:13:45.633+00:002011-04-13T22:13:45.633+00:00Try living here:
http://www.voterpower.org.uk/boot...Try living here:<br />http://www.voterpower.org.uk/bootle<br />It used to be in a Lab/Tory marginal, but got put in with Bootle in the 2010 boundary changes. <br />No seat ahould be that safe.The Snarkeryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05473622708461318032noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-43967877477703721962011-04-11T19:15:10.167+00:002011-04-11T19:15:10.167+00:00...I should have said >50% First Preferences wi......I should have said >50% <b>First Preferences</b> with AV.weggishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04651722712995395981noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-39050331593658863082011-04-11T19:12:55.840+00:002011-04-11T19:12:55.840+00:00>50% with FPTP does not necessarily translate t...>50% with FPTP does not necessarily translate to >50% with AV.weggishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04651722712995395981noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-1995583754398899232011-04-11T18:24:21.640+00:002011-04-11T18:24:21.640+00:00AStrategist - you say well done NEf but in Lewisha...AStrategist - you say well done NEf but in Lewisham Dept. Labour got more than 50% of the vote and so there wouldn't have even been a second round to this vote under AV - so how they can say my vote power would have increased by a full third... it's not credible.<br /><br />In fact the stat they should have used (even with their numbers) is;<br /><br />You vote is .971 futile and it will be .961 futile. Your voting power has increased by 1%.<br /><br />(Will come back to other later, my meeting's starting)Jim Jeppshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17410387006098326671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-18409823662441339282011-04-11T13:53:43.884+00:002011-04-11T13:53:43.884+00:00Sorry, I just lost my comment. Which was also an a...Sorry, I just lost my comment. Which was also an apology, for getting my first comment wrong. Actually, in Lewisham West, according to my assumptions, the Lib Dems win. That is, in both safe Labour seats AV would give us Lib Dem MPs. Because they are the centre party, they get the anti votes from both right and left. <br /><br />HOWEVER, that was based on 2010 votes, and of course the Lib Dems have so discredited themselves that far, far fewer people will give them first, second or any preference. <br /><br />EXCEPT that someone like me, who would put Green first and Labour second, would probably still put Lib Dem third as a slightly lesser evil than Tory.bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15439386754907203808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-13671563243699654152011-04-11T13:48:44.621+00:002011-04-11T13:48:44.621+00:00Sorry, I got Lewisham West wrong. In both constitu...Sorry, I got Lewisham West wrong. In both constituencies, the Lib Dems emerge as the winners (NOT the Tories in Lewisham W).bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15439386754907203808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-38098494880557265582011-04-11T13:43:02.815+00:002011-04-11T13:43:02.815+00:00I just did the same exercise for Lewisham East, wh...I just did the same exercise for Lewisham East, where Priscella Cotterell got 1.5%. There, using the same sorts of assumptions (plus that English Dems transfer to Tory and that Community Needs Before Private Profit transfer to Labour), the Lib Dems (second with 28% under FPTP) manage to win. <br /><br />In other words, it seems to me that the third party voters dictate the election, not the fringe party voters or the supporters of the most popular parties.bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15439386754907203808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-85165926314824080012011-04-11T13:35:29.243+00:002011-04-11T13:35:29.243+00:00thanks for posting this Jim. Very helpful.
I just...thanks for posting this Jim. Very helpful.<br /><br />I just did a very crude exercise with Lewisham West and Penge, where Romayne Pheonix stood and got just 2.1% last time, which NEF says moves from very safe to fairly safe Labour under AV. Using the last results, and making the (flawed) assumptions that Christian People's Alliance and UKIP voters transfer preferences to Tories, that Greens transfer to Labour and that Tories transfer to Lib Dems, then I calculate the Tories (the third choice under FPTP, with just 25% support, get their MP elected. Do I not like that.Bob from Brockleyhttp://brockley.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-4662886737738834432011-04-09T20:12:31.442+00:002011-04-09T20:12:31.442+00:00Hmm, I've tried where I live (up 30%), where i...Hmm, I've tried where I live (up 30%), where i used to live (up 32%), where my mum lives (up 30%) and where my dad lives (up 30%) - wonder if there is any sort of pattern here...Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16607183033103200146noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-34135033962492536402011-04-09T17:34:26.297+00:002011-04-09T17:34:26.297+00:00Last night, the presenters of the Now Show on radi...Last night, the presenters of the Now Show on radio Four put the real choice we have really succinctly; do we vote No to piss off Clegg or Yes to piss off Cameron. Mmm...a tricky choice.Sean Thompsonhttp://seanthompson@blueyonder.co.uknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-81420015295353624062011-04-09T08:26:46.348+00:002011-04-09T08:26:46.348+00:00Jim - try living in Brentwood. My only vote that m...Jim - try living in Brentwood. My only vote that makes any real difference is in the European Parliament elections. Not surprisingly I've grown to like the Regional list system. Ironically my old constituencies in London, were two of the most marginal.<br />This of course isn't addressed by FPTP or AV. When people say these systems give you a local MP who can represent you in Parliament, all I have to say is - how would you like it if you were represented by Eric Pickles !Essex Womblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02286331575958047805noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-45606304046619395162011-04-09T08:21:43.518+00:002011-04-09T08:21:43.518+00:00Jim - try living in Brentwood. My only vote that m...Jim - try living in Brentwood. My only vote that makes any significant difference is in the Euro-Elections. Perhaps the reason why I'm sympathetic to regional list systems.<br />When people tell me that FPTP and AV deliver a constituency MP, all I tell them is mine is Eric Pickles.Essex Womblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02286331575958047805noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-6286128213656050352011-04-09T00:05:16.500+00:002011-04-09T00:05:16.500+00:00Great brilliant website, by the way. Well done, N...Great brilliant website, by the way. Well done, NEFStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16519305659966338395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30598467.post-24441460508470391482011-04-09T00:02:16.144+00:002011-04-09T00:02:16.144+00:00Yes, Jim, that's why they call it a miserable ...Yes, Jim, that's why they call it a miserable little compromise. <br /><br />But I fear the sorry truth is that we have to do what we can to get a Yes vote, because it is still (if only so very marginally) a better system than FPTP. <br /><br />Under AV at least you can register your protest against the shithouses and charlatans of New Labour before casting your second preference vote for them to keep the Tories out. If we can over time build up a consistently visible 10-15% left-of-New Labour vote, then this will create its own dynamic for further electoral reform and legitimacy for civil disobedience, if necessary.Strategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16519305659966338395noreply@blogger.com